Key Predictions Overview:
- Continued Policy Movement Driving Circular Innovation
- Gen Z's Growing Influence as Consumers and Professionals
- More Expected Growing Pains for the Industry
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For the sustainable packaging industry – alternative fiber, specifically – 2024 has been a great year.
Just at the U.S. level, we’ve seen no shortage of progress in the fight against plastic pollution, in the form of policy changes, ambitious brand sustainability commitments, consumer demand shifts, and more.
These advancements have laid a promising foundation for 2025, and as the new year approaches, research and recent business trends tell us there is even more to look forward to. As the CEO of a startup spearheading the development of ag waste and recycled fiber product offerings that are brandable, affordable and enterprise-friendly, a few key predictions stand out for the alternative fiber packaging industry.
Continued Policy Movement Driving Circular Innovation
Perhaps the most impactful trend affecting the industry in 2025 is the continued expansion of state-level plastic packaging and recycling policy.
Through a macro lens, states have commanded major progress over the past few years by banning and limiting single-use plastics and PFAS, all while federal legislation has struggled to gain traction. California, New York, New Jersey, Washington and Oregon have all recently passed laws that ban plastic bags, straws, polystyrene foam, packing peanuts, utensils and other single-use plastic products, for example. Other states have limited many of the same products.
From a recycling and PCR supply perspective, 2024 also made it clear that we will need to prioritize a structural shift in how we approach and manage our recycled waste, from sorting confusions in our homes to extended producer responsibility (EPR) laws in states like Oregon. After all, the demand for PCR and recycled PET content far exceeds the available supply for almost all plastic resins, which means prices are likely to remain high for a while.
The good news? This continued challenge will inevitably expedite the demand for alternative fiber innovation and interest in the new year, as well as additional state policy solutions and public awareness.
In 2025, I predict that these policies will be passed or implemented more widely, with more states adopting EPR programs, fiscal incentive programs, stricter recycling targets and outright bans. Companies in the sustainable packaging space will need to adapt quickly to secure their market share, which will undoubtedly drive innovation in alternative fiber, recyclable materials, and packaging designs that prioritize recyclability, biodegradability, and overall circularity.
Gen Z's Growing Influence as Consumers and Professionals
One of the most exciting recent trends that the sustainable packaging sector has seen is the influx of Gen Z talent and innovation into the workforce. This generation is widely known for its strong commitments to social and environmental progress. In fact, according to a 2024 survey, over a quarter of professionals in the Gen Z age group plan to change jobs due to environmental or sustainability concerns, and 20% have already done so.
As more high school and college graduates continue to opt for careers in sustainability-focused spaces, 2025 will be a year in which we see these impassioned individuals truly start to come into their own within the packaging industry, particularly following the recent election.
But the workforce isn’t the only place we’ll see this generation’s growing impact. As consumers and voters in the 13-28 age range, Gen Z will be driving the needle on demand for Earth-friendly, low-impact business practice and products. A third of these individuals conduct independent research on a company’s environmental policies before buying products from them, and the commitment doesn’t end there: 35% of Gen Zers already avoid buying fast fashion due to climate concerns, and 30% even avoid air travel when they can. This pattern is sending our industry a clear message: There is more opportunity for growth than ever.
Some Expected Growing Pains for the Industry
As with any new industry, the sustainable packaging and alternative fiber spaces are bound to continue to encounter some growing pains in the coming year and beyond. The current movement we’re experiencing marks a true structural shift in our culture, beliefs and, critically, our expectations.
If we had a dollar for every time we’ve had a customer prospect or business come to us this year to tell us that their current fiber-based packaging ‘isn’t as durable’, ‘can’t be water-resistant enough’, ‘can’t be customized’, or ‘isn’t marketing-friendly' as the plastic versions they’re used to... frankly, we’d already have basically quadrupled our funding goals.
While companies like ours are working every day to minimize them, there are inherent realities and hurdles that come with trying to do something a different way than it’s historically been done before. Comparing many alternative fiber solutions on the market today to their plastic equivalents feels like apples and oranges. It’s important for businesses to understand that, regardless of supplier, there is going to be a period of trial and error in honing the final product they’re envisioning. In many ways, it’s an unavoidable but small cost of major societal progress and positive change.
The key to success will be finding designers and suppliers that understand the businesses’ goals and are willing to collaborate shoulder-to-shoulder on creating a solution tailored to fit that vision. In a few short years, fiber packaging will be all we know.
